Case Study
Case Study

Climate change: Baillie Gifford, climate scenarios workshop

Changes underway in our climate and energy systems are complex and uncertain. Taking the time now to explore varied but plausible futures, and considering how different investments may fare, should improve our decision-making. Working with academic partners, Baillie Gifford has created a set of global storylines that bind technology, society and nature across three possible futures: orderly, disorderly and failed climate transitions. These are used by their investment teams to challenge assumptions, test portfolio construction, and generate new ideas.

In November 2024, Brunel invited Baillie Gifford to host the same training for our own teams. Informed by the starting narratives, the day was spent debating the current state of the transition and testing specific asset classes and investments for sensitivity and resilience. Attendees came away with an improved mental toolkit for how to consider the first, second and third order consequences of different climate futures and how that would impact on people, communities, assets, sectors, geographies, economies.

We are supportive of the UK’s Pension’s Regulator review of how to make climate scenarios decision useful. The review recognised the benefits of qualitative approaches with clear narratives which complement more quantitative approaches which are still developing.

At time of publishing, May 2025, Baillie Gifford is one of our partners on our High Alpha Global Equity & UK Equity portfolios